"The "failure" of the prison institution to deter criminals or to prevent recidivism is not a failure at all, but serves the interests of society..."

One of the great things about articles in the city paper and in the Tennessean - and every other local newspaper across the country - is that you can get a quick sociological snapshot of the level of education and critical thinkers among the masses in a particular geographic region by reading the comments made by the "good ol boys-n-girls." If some of those "analysis" comments don't scare the bejesus out of you at the level of ignorance, hatred, scapegoating and stupidity in some of our neighbors, I don't know what will, and trust me, this problem isn't endemic to Tennessee. I've said before that when the economy turns sour, certain crimes increase. Most recent studies done have corroborated this, at least to some extent, but the issue is far more complex than it might seem. It behooves anyone who's interested to check out some of the better research available in databases like JSTOR, ProQuest, and Lexis Nexis. There's a ton of stuff from JSTOR and one of the better studies comes from The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82, No. 4 (Nov., 2000), pp. 530-539:Inequality and Crime, by Morgan Kelly, the conclusion of which is presented here:

VI. Conclusion

This paper studies the relationship between crime and the labor market conditions for those most likely to commit crime: less educated men. From 1979 to 1997, the wages of unskilled men fell by 20%, and, despite declines after 1993, the property and violent crime rates (adjusted for changes in demographic characteristics) increased by 21% and 35%, respectively. We employ a variety of strategies to investi­gate whether these trends can be linked to one another. First, we use a panel data set of counties to examine both the annual changes in crime from 1979 to 1997 and the ten-year changes between the 1980 and 1990 Censuses. Both of these analyses control for county and time fixed effects, as well as potential endogeneity using instrumental variables. We also explain the criminal activity of individuals using microdata from the NLSY79, allowing us to control for individual characteristics that are likely to affect criminal behavior.

Our OLS analysis using annual data from 1979 to 1997 shows that the wage trends explain more than 50% of the increase in both the property and violent crime indices over the sample period. Although the decrease of 3.1 percentage points in the unemployment rate of non-college-educated men after 1993 lowered crime rates during this period more than the increase in the wages of non-college-educated men, the long-term crime trend has been unaffected by the un­employment rate because there has been no long-term trend in the unemployment rate. By contrast, the wages of un­skilled men show a long-term secular decline over the sample period. Therefore, although crime rates are found to be significantly determined by both the wages and unem­ployment rates of less educated males, our results indicate that a sustained long-term decrease in crime rates will depend on whether the wages of less skilled men continue to improve. These results are robust to the inclusion of deter­rence variables (arrest rates and police expenditures), con­trols for simultaneity using instrumental variables, both our aggregate and microdata analyses, and controlling for indi­vidual and family characteristics.

Here's an abstract from a fairly comprehensive study back in the 70s sponsored by the US department of Justice, Economic crises and crime - correlations between the state of the economy, deviance and the control of deviance:

abstract: considered first is a time-series analysis of the effects of the economy on criminal behavior and the administration of criminal justice, based on data from the united states, Canada, England and Wales, and Scotland for 1900-1975. Also included are research on the correlation between unemployment and crime rates and a rural case study of the relationship between chronic food shortages, famine crises, and crime. A general discussion of criminological theory as it refers to economic distress-deviance linkages prefaces the report. In it the author summarizes the principal findings or a hypothesis derived from the research and discusses policy conclusions. Research findings are as follows: economic growth correlates positively with higher rates for most categories of reported crime; downturns are marked by a sharper increase of most categories of reported crime; there is a positive correlation between unemployment and crime juvenile delinquency; and the flow of referrals to deviance-oriented institutions rises sharply in periods economic distress.

Mainstream media has addressed the issue lately as well; check out MSNBC's recent posting:

In 2007 there were 1,207 shoplifting cases reported in Columbus. Already in 2008, there have been 1,149 cases. 458 of the reported shoplifts were committed by first time offenders, NBC 4's Matt Alvarez reported. They are "economic crimes," Hedrick said.

And of course, we've got to include the "broken windows" theory, brought to us by a story in Rocky Mount Telegram citing the local mayor and the local police chief:

Both Manley and Turnage said much of Rocky Mount's crime is generated by low socioeconomic neighborhoods and a poor economy in the area. U.S. Census figures show that only one city in the state has a higher percentage of families living below poverty level – Greenville. "A large proportion of Rocky Mount is economically deprived, and that tends to support crime," Manley said. Dilapidated buildings, gang graffiti and dirty neighborhoods affect crime rates, he added. But with an appearance of vibrancy and life, Manley said, crime will decrease. "If you have boarded-up buildings and graffiti, that tends to generate criminal activity," the chief said. "Like the Tip Top Bakery, that thing should have been gone a hundred years ago.

Here's another angle, presented by a writeup in Wikipedia, addressing Blue Collar Crime, which most scholars will immediately dismiss as irrelevant, but which I think may actually have at least some validity based on its citations:

Policing strategies

The statistical data is likely to show that there is more crime in high-density, inner-city areas and such data is used to justify targeting such areas with more police officers. More recently, zero tolerance policies have been adopted which are not uniformly successful and usually simply displace crime into less intensively policed areas. But, most of the areas targeted will be "blue-collar" areas and, with higher arrest rates, the "hot spot" label becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. An additional factor is identified by Kicenski (2002) who argues that, because states privatise the prison system, corporate profitability depends on building more prison facilities, managing their operations, and selling inmate labour. Hence, large corporations have a direct interest in ensuring a steady supply of inmates with useful skills (see Dyer: 2000 who demonstrates that while the statistics for violent crime have remained steady, the prison population has grown significantly as the "prison-industrial complex" preys on largely minority and underclass segments of society). Michel Foucault (1977) argued that the "failure" of the prison institution to deter criminals or to prevent recidivism is not a failure at all, but serves the interests of society in the same way that the Poor Laws benefited English society through the operation of workhouses.

And just to shake things up, here's something published in Criminology that says pretty much the opposite, although notice that this study is discussing the unemployment rate and the MIT study said it wasn't so much the unemployment rate but the decreasing wages rates of unskilled labor over the years. Also to be fair, it was done in 1987 and significant research has been done since this study was completed that refutes many of its findings:

Despite the widespread acceptance of the notion that during periods of economic downturn, higher levels of unemployment lead to higher levels of crime and imprisonment, the research literature reveals very little consistent support for the existence of such a relationship. Studies that do suggest unemployment causes crime and imprisonment have used methodological techniques which, especially in over-time studies, could lead to the acceptance of spurious effects caused by trend and lag as evidence of a true relationship. Using data over a six-year period for the United States, a panel model is specified in which appropriate controls for intra-series trend and cross-series lagged effects are included. Although bivariate correlations are strongly suggestive of a relationship between unemployment and crime, results of the panel approach suggest that most of the apparent relationship is due to common trend effects. Little evidence is found for the existence of a relationship between crime/imprisonment and unemployment, regardless of the type of effect considered. In addition, results from stability tests indicate that the crime-unemployment relationship has been unstable. while the unemployment-imprisonment relationship has been relatively invariant.

So where does all this leave us? Well, all I can say from my anecdotal platform here is that it just seems odd that whenever I've seen times of trouble in our nation's economy, I've noticed that crimes like property theft and robbery seems to increase fairly dramatically. Being on the street for so long, I also know that folks need money to survive and if they can't get it from a regular job, day labor or the guvmint, they'll figure out a way to get it, period. When times are tough I'm much more careful about downplaying what I own, locking my doors and windows, tightly, and staying away from "high crime" areas whenever possible. Based on the research, I'm doing the correct things, and I've been pretty damned lucky in that I haven't been a victim of crime in quite a long time.... Shoot - where's some wood? Raw numbers justify the perception that some neighborhood crime is up By Christine Buttorff, News Correspondent Updated: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 2:04 am

Despite touting an overall lower crime rate, Metro Police Chief Ronal Serpas admitted at a pair of neighborhood meetings that certain crimes in certain areas are on the rise. File

A recent increase of crimes in a few urban-core communities led several neighborhood groups to hold meetings with Metro Police to get the department to respond to a growing perception that crime is up, not down. Only months ago Metro Police Chief Ronal Serpas was touting statistics that showed overall crime was down in Nashville, but at a pair of meetings last week he acknowledged that north, central and west Nashville neighborhoods remain problem areas. “Crime is down for five years in a row, but it’s not eliminated,” Serpas said. “There are some neighborhoods in Nashville that have not experienced the crime reduction.” The North Precinct did see a 3.3 percent increase in overall crime last year, according to the police department’s annual compilation of statistics. And the West Precinct has shown a 22.1 percent increase in street robberies this year. The Central Precinct, which deals primarily with the downtown area, showed a 0.7 percent decrease in overall crime in 2007, but street robberies this year as of May 10 have increased 43 percent over the same period last year. One victim of those street robberies was the president of the Urban Residents Association, who was mugged earlier this month. It was one of the incidents that prompted the community meetings with Serpas. Downtown residents — a group steadily increasing as more downtown condominiums are completed and purchased — say they think street robbery and auto break-ins are increasing. Central Precinct officers, who joined their chief for the meetings, told downtown residents that they are not completely sure what is causing the spike. Some said that many of the downtown crimes are being committed by homeless individuals harassing other homeless individuals, but they say it also could be two or three individuals targeting the area during a time when there are not many witnesses. Serpas defended his department and pointed a finger at the justice system when he remarked that “Four out of 10 people we arrest for robbery already have a felony conviction. Why aren’t they in prison?” The cost of public perception Regardless of whether crime is statistically increasing in an area, the perception that it is is increasing, which is a concern for Metro Council members Mike Jameson and Erica Gilmore. “The perception of the downtown core has to be positive,” said Jameson. He explained that if people don’t think they will be safe, they might not move or relocate businesses to the downtown area. The perception of increased criminal activity in any area can have an impact on how safe residents feel in their own neighborhoods or how those areas will be viewed by outsiders. When Metro Police numbers are broken down by Council district, Districts 6 and 19, which cover parts of East, Downtown and North Nashville, both saw a decrease in reported crimes last year over 2006. However, the raw numbers of violent and property crimes are the highest in the city — 3,016 crimes were reported for District 6 (represented by Jameson) and 3,266 last year for Gilmore’s District 19. By comparison, Councilwoman Emily Evans’ District 23 had the lowest number in Davidson County with 347 crimes. For many North Nashville residents, decreasing crime is welcome, but many still feel frustrated at the high incidence of problems. Many cite drug dealing as the major problem. “Our neighborhood is trying to combat a serious drug dealing problem on 11th Avenue,” said Jason Powell, president of the Hope Gardens Neighborhood Association. “These crimes are occurring openly and the residents call and call the police who respond, but we’re still not seeing much resolution to this issue.” At an NAACP forum last week, some residents said that the police department does not have enough officers in the area. “I think they’re visible, but they’re on the outside looking in,” said John Little, a resident who works as a mentor for foster children. Serpas said neighbors could help themselves by getting to know one another and watching for unusual activity can make a huge difference. In fact, the chief reported that the number of neighborhood watch groups increased from 250 in 2004 to 363 by the end of last year. Still, Little questions their effectiveness. “Are they still calling in, are they still having these relationships?”

he asked. “If [there’s] a lot of crime, and we have more neighborhood groups than before, are the neighborhood groups effective?” While most community and association members say their relationship with the police department is good, some say that quality-of-life issues are sometimes pushed aside in favor of more serious crimes. “The perception is that the police have been really good on partnering with us on long-term issues,” said Thomas O’Connell, president of the Salemtown Neighbors Neighborhood Association, which deals primarily with quality-of-life issues such as noise ordinance violations. “If we can’t count on having our laws enforced even if they’re minor, then what’s the point of having them on the books?” O’Connell explained, adding, “I think there is a level of frustration that we have our hands tied on some of these persistent issues.” Curbing noise violations is an example of a quality-of-life issue the police department deals with all of the time. One of the biggest quality-of-life initiatives the police department has undertaken is for the downtown core, largely in the Central and West Precincts, which encompass sections of Districts 6 and 19. Downtown crime a homeless problem? Additional frustration is coming from homeless advocates, who think police are unfairly blaming the homeless for the spike in crime. Metro Police have identified 446 individuals they’ve cited multiple times for public drunkenness, trespassing and disorderly conduct. Those 446 individuals have been arrested a total of 10,377 times, the department says. That means, according to department statistics, they have an average of 23 arrests, 36 charges and 16 convictions per person. The department says the majority of these arrestees are homeless. “I think what we need is for the debate to be separated between the people who are homeless because of reasons beyond their control—the loss of a job, the loss of a family connection, loss of an opportunity—versus these 446 people who we believe the evidence overwhelmingly shows is their lifestyle choice,” explained Serpas. “Imagine the resources that they’re consuming.” Father Charlie Strobel, executive director for the Campus for Human Development — a shelter and resource center for the homeless — said that the perception goes both ways. “I’ve been working with the homeless since 1977 and I’ve always found they can be an easy target… We can allow them to be targets and victims in the sense that they’ll be blamed for all the problems of a new emerging downtown.” Serpas said an option might be to follow a similar program in Jacksonville, Fla., which requires chronic misdemeanor offenders stay in jail long enough to start receiving alcohol or drug treatment. Homeless advocates agree that treatment is best for chronic offenders, but don’t necessarily agree that jail is the best place for that treatment to occur. “A punitive approach to repeated public intoxication does not stop someone from drinking,” Strobel said. “Rehabilitation and recovery starts with relationships that allow people a chance to get into programs that are geared to help them address the chemical problem.”