A couple of things about this year's AHAR report though, that bother me just a little. Probably the biggest issue for me is that the data is collected from the 2010 Point in Time counts and the Homelessness Management Information System (HMIS) data. There's no doubt that these counts are getting better, but both methods are still a looooonnnngg way from any providing any sort of real accuracy in the actual number of individuals experiencing homelessness around the country. There are plenty of reasons for this and I won't delve into them all here, since you can find arguments on the validity of the counts all over the web and in the previous posts here at SSS.
It does stand to reason however, that spikes - or the lack thereof - in numbers of homelessness would most likely show up in both of these, since newly homeless individuals are probably more likely to seek out services and less able - or willing - to hide during PIT counts.
Still, I'm a bit cynical when it comes to relying on the numbers in the AHAR for anything more than very general statements. I'm also inclined to at least double the numbers (and there are many in my field of work who triple and even quadruple them) reported in order to get a better feel for the real number of people who're experiencing homelessness on any given night. The other part of this unease lies in the need for our Federal officials to show they are making progress in a time of budget cuts and fiscal conservatism. I certainly wouldn't call HUD Secretary Donovan a liar here, as I believe he is fully committed to providing the best possible resources in the fight to end chronic homelessness forever in our country. But I also know there are extreme pressures exerted in the political world for results, especially in the run-up to big elections, and President Obama has to be looking to his appointed department heads for results that can be pointed to with pride in order to bolster his own chances at reelection. As such, it makes sense that those who know will try to put the best possible spin on just about anything that is even remotely related to Obama.
In any event, the news is cause for celebration, especially when contrasted against the seriousness of the suffering of so many through the worst economic times in decades.
But I'd celebrate in a hurry, because I suspect that when we see the 2011 report, we will dream wistfully of the time when we can reduce that number to 2010 levels....
National Alliance to End Homelessness: No Increase in Homelessness Despite Recession
PRESS RELEASES | 15 JUN 2011
Contact: Catherine An
202-942-8297, can@naeh.org
No Increase in Homelessness Despite Recession
Future of homelessness numbers less certain
Homelessness in the United States did not increase significantly during the height of the recession, according to the Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress (AHAR) released by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) yesterday. The flat numbers, in spite of an idling economy, are a testament to improved homeless assistance systems and the adoption of housing-based strategies to end homelessness. However, budget cuts at the federal, state, and local levels threaten to destabilize the efforts made to avert increases in homelessness.
The report, based on 2010 data, shows a one percent increase in overall homelessness from 2009 to 2010. Subpopulations, including individuals, unsheltered homeless people, and persons in families increased slightly; 0.75 percent, 2.76 percent, and 1.61 percent respectively. Chronic homelessness continued to decline, dropping one percent. Experts largely attribute the continual decline in chronic homelessness to the broad implementation of best practices to serve chronically homeless people, namely permanent supportive housing.
For the first time, the impact of the federal Homelessness Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing Program (HPRP) was included in the AHAR. The $1.5 billion program, funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), offered communities significant new resources to curb homelessness resulting from the recession. In the first year, HPRP funds prevented and ended homelessness for an estimated 690,000 people and are credited with decreasing the length of time people experienced homelessness in suburban and rural communities, where the average length of stay in an emergency family shelter declined from 62 days to 40 days.
The three-year stimulus program, which ends next year, will leave a considerable hole in the budgets of many local homeless assistance programs. Coupled with cuts to mainstream poverty programs, local and state services, and the relentless rise in need, experts predict that homelessness may rise in the coming years.
“There’s little question that the federal government’s investment in homelessness prevention and rapid re-housing and local efforts to promote housing-based solutions staved off an increase in homelessness during an economically troubled time,” said Nan Roman, president of the National Alliance to End Homelessness. “But bigger obstacles are ahead. Not only is HPRP ending but federal, state, and local budget cuts will arrest our ability to dedicate the resources necessary to prevent and end homelessness in the face of rising need. Now is not the time to become complacent; now is the time to rally to meet the challenge.”
