“Lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The other day I discussed a story found in that bastion of journalistic integrity, Newsbusters.org, regarding the media's supposed lack of coverage as the "official" count numbers of people experiencing homelessness indicated a decline. I mentioned then that I was just a wee bit skeptical of the numbers, but when I saw this report by the National Alliance to End Homelessness, the "wee bit" turned into "whole lot." The reason?

"The report’s data was generated by Homeless Management Information Systems and point-in-time studies from Continuums of Care."

HMIS reports and point-in-time studies, while great for bean counters and stats fanatics, are simply not a reliable indicator of the true number of actual encounters per individual or individuals encountered by outreach personnel. First, individuals do not have to sign the HMIS data sheet. Many don't, and they cannot be denied services because of their refusal to sign. Second, outreach workers are often reluctant to pull out a sheet of official - looking paper and start asking for a person's full name, date of birth and social security number during an initial encounter. I only get an HMIS sheet on those I've already built a relationship with, and even then most are hesitant to sign, doing so usually only because I've asked them to and they trust me enough to know I won't let it be used against them. Realistically, I probably have something like a 1:20 ratio of collected HMIS sheets to actual persons interacted with. Third, I cannot possibly log every encounter I have with my clients into HMIS; to do so would take more time on the computer than I spend with my clients. I typically only log initial encounters and subsequent ones that had some sort of outcome. General contact, repeated bus pass requests, directions or information disseminaton, etc., are often left out simply because I not only don't have the time, I cannot remember every single person I have spoken with over the course of the day in order to log them all. There was a hope that HMIS data entry could be done "on the fly" by utilizing cellphones with internet connections, and I have on occasion done exactly that. But the HMIS database, while fairly user-friendly, is, like most webpage databases, slow and lumbering as it records selections, check boxes, name comparisons, etc. Trying to get it done quickly on a Blackberry or a Mogul is....difficult, to say the least. To say the most, it is at times maddeningly frustrating and takes far more time than one can give while in the field. Interacting with multiple individuals concurrently, which is often the case for me, makes the process of logging them and remembering everything done for each one of them unbelievably difficult, if not impossible. I could go on, but I suspect by now you get it. So, for the time being, I would strongly advise you to treat any reported decline of homelessness arising from the use of HMIS data as highly suspect. Incidentally, even HUD itself warns you to do the same....

“some of the decrease in the total number of homeless persons on a single night may be ‘real’…nevertheless, the estimated decrease…should be interpreted with caution.

The 2007 Annual Homeless Assessment Report: A Summary of Findings

Author: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Community Planning and Development

Files:

PDF | 2.92 MB | 8 pages

In its Third Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced that last year the country has experienced about an 11 percent decrease in homelessness, including a 30 percent drop in chronic homelessness since 2005. The report’s data was generated by Homeless Management Information Systems and point-in-time studies from Continuums of Care. The report notes that “some of the decrease in the total number of homeless persons on a single night may be ‘real’…nevertheless, the estimated decrease…should be interpreted with caution.” This is largely due to the difficulty associated with counting homeless people, particularly counting the number of chronically homeless people.